Economic Fear seems to be the only thing that people can talk about. Three months ago, everyone was certain that we’d sail through the next four years with an economy unlike any other.
Now, the word recession fills our lexicon.
Government layoffs, funding cuts, immigration fears, and tariffs have become our new reality. Any one of those items would be tough on our economy. But every one of those factors, put into place simultaneously, can really hurt.
The majority of these new policies haven’t been in place long enough for economists to measure their effects yet. But here’s what we know so far…
1 – The Small Business Optimism Index, as compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business, fell in February. Uncertainty, rose to the second-highest level on record.
2 – According to data from AlphaSense, the term “soft landing” was mentioned in 61 U.S. company conference calls in the last three months of 2024. Since the start of this year, that number has dropped to seven.
3 – The National Policy Uncertainty Index which is based on U.S. news articles has soared. The only time it was higher was in the early days of the Covid Pandemic.
4 – Consumers at all income levels are reducing their spending. Every retailer from Walmart to Delta Air Lines has reduced their financial forecasting for the future.
This all comes down to one basic concept which is that consumers aren’t buying any extras. They’ll go to a Gas Station to buy gas. But they won’t go into the store to buy pop or a bag of chips.
Let me leave you with this…
I’m writing about fear because if left unchecked, it can cause a recession.
Fear can lead to widespread pessimism. This in turn can lead to a loss of confidence which reduces spending and investment. Ultimately, this can lead to a couple of quarters with negative GDP growth, which is the very definition of a recession.
Entrepreneuring isn’t easy. If it was, everyone would be capable. Few are chosen. Fewer still are able.
I’ve been an Entrepreneur for thirty-five years. Back in November of 1990, when I began what would ultimately become Accounting Solutions, I was little more than a 24 year-old kid with $6,600 in his jeans, a business plan written on the back of a matchbook, and a dream.
And what happened a couple of months later in January of 1991? We invaded Iraq. For five weeks, the only thing anyone wanted to do was watch CNN. No one was interested in my startup, but I hung in there.
Since then I’ve taken my businesses through War, Famine, Death, and Pestilence. And we’re still here today, being the largest single partner accounting practice on Chicago’s north side.
My Brothers and Sisters, I’m telling you that you can’t be afraid of this thing. If you are, it will eat you alive, and make any possibility of rational decision making impossible. And that, my fellow entrepreneurs, is how businesses go belly up.
There are three things that are necessary…
Contingency Plans
Grab a piece of paper and pencil out every possibility you can imagine and how you’ll respond. Plan for success rather than failure.
If you’ve thought this thing through and already know how to respond, you can control your fear.
I’ll guarantee you that things won’t shake out exactly as you’ve planned. There’s going to be curveballs and unimagined permutations.
But a little creative thinking at that point will solve those problems as well.
Take Care Of Yourself
Many don’t realize that entrepreneuring isn’t only about managing others. It’s also about managing yourself.
When we go through difficult times, dealing with your own mental health is paramount. If you can’t make a rational decision, the ship is already lost.
We’re going to have a beautiful weekend. Get outside and do something that’s for you and you alone. Enjoy our beautiful lakefront, read a book, or ride your bike down a gorgeous trail.
Personally, I’m going hunting. It will probably be the last time I can get into the woods with the dogs to see if we can kick up a few pheasants before spring. There might even be a couple of green beers and some corned beef and cabbage in my future this weekend.
In the immortal words of Dolly Parton, a great American Entrepreneur, “Don’t be so busy making a living, to not make a life for yourself.”
Take control of your psyche. You’ll be glad that you did. Its a necessity.
Be The Voice Of Calm In Your Community
As Entrepreneurs we’re naturally born to lead. We lead not just our businesses, but also our communities at large.
People look to us to give them the confidence they need in times of uncertainty. Be that calm in the storm that gets everyone home safely as you take your little ship through what follows.
Spend time with your significant other. Let them know that everything is going to be alright. Nothing could possibly ruin your day like a spouse who’s worried about their credit cards not working at the grocery store.
Spend time with your kids. In many ways they’ll worry more than anyone, being that they’re small, having no control. Reassure them and let them know that no matter what happens, their world will be just fine.
Spend time in your community. The only things people are seeing is what they see in the media. And the media’s job is to scare them, so they won’t change that channel, and will continue to patronize their advertisers.
Be that voice of reason in your community. Remind them of the fact that America is the very definition of resilient.
You and I have been through a lot together.
This weekend is the anniversary of when Covid shut down the world. We all made it through the masks, the deaths, the absolute uncertainty, and the rampant inflation. Guess what else we’re going to make it through?
We’re all going to get through this. Let’s get through it together.
The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
Accounting Solutions Ltd. stands ready to complete our mission and purpose of protecting you, your family, and your business. Whether you need Payroll Services, or Accounting and Tax Work, you have but to ask. I’m here and I remain,
Sincerely yours,
Chris Amundson
President
Accounting Solutions Ltd.
773-267-7500
888-310-0300
www.SalarySolutions.net
www.AccountingSolutionsLtd.com
Note that the only professional services provided by Accounting Solutions Ltd. are those specified in a written communication from our office detailing the scope of services to be rendered and the terms and conditions applicable to the engagement.