January’s unemployment numbers held steady at 3.7%. Employers added a seasonally adjusted 353K jobs last month.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, back in reality, large companies are continuing to announce massive layoffs. This includes but isn’t limited to…<\/p>\n
Cisco – 5% of its workforce
\nDocusign – 6% of its workforce
\nExpedia – 9% of its workforce
\nNike – 2% of its workforce
\nParamount – 3% of its workforce
\nWarner Music – 10% of its workforce
\nZoom – 2% of its workforce<\/p>\n
And that doesn’t include the layoffs at Google. Amazon, Ebay, Microsoft, and many others.<\/p>\n
So what’s going on? Are things good or bad? Are we going to have a soft landing or will the economy recess? If the economy does recess, how bad will it be?<\/p>\n
Is it time for us to gird our loins for battle, or should we just mix a Martini? No one seems to know.<\/p>\n
Let me leave you with this…<\/p>\n
I have several major Chicago money managers that are close friends. When I ask them, I get all sorts of talk, but no straight answers.<\/p>\n
Former President Nixon was famously quoted as saying that what he needed was a one-handed economist. Because economists always say things like well one the one hand this will happen, but on the other if something else happens, then the opposite could occur.<\/p>\n
Currently, most economists seem to think that there’s a 50\/50 chance between a soft landing and a recession. Further, they say that if there is a recession, it will probably be mild.<\/p>\n
So much of this depends on where you look and what economic data you survey. An example would be if you look at the unemployment numbers, we’ll have a soft landing. On the other hand, if you look at the layoffs, we’ll probably recess.<\/p>\n
Again, no one knows. At least the economic news has radically improved. Twelve short months ago, two-thirds of economists predicted a recession, and most of them expected more than a 20% stock market correction.<\/p>\n
What does all of this mean to those of us managing businesses?<\/p>\n
We obviously aren’t out of the woods yet. As much as it pains me to say it, until we can see clear signs of not going into a recession, caution must still be the order of the day.<\/p>\n
I wouldn’t be in a hurry to begin any new major projects at this point. We wouldn’t want to get into the middle of something and get caught with our pants down. <\/p>\n
No one really knows what will happen with any degree of certainty. And when you add the November elections into the mix, all bets are off.<\/p>\n
Be cautious, Be careful. Live to fight another day.<\/p>\n
We’re all going to get through this. Let’s get through it together.<\/p>\n
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Sincerely yours,<\/p>\n
Chris Amundson<\/p>\n
President<\/p>\n
Accounting Solutions Ltd.<\/p>\n
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January’s unemployment numbers held steady at 3.7%. Employers added a seasonally adjusted 353K jobs last month. Meanwhile, back in reality, large companies are continuing to announce massive layoffs. This includes but isn’t limited to… Cisco – 5% of its workforce Docusign – 6% of its workforce Expedia – 9% of its workforce Nike – 2% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n